Sunday, September 23, 2007

No Hurricane Jerry Thankfully!!!!!

No Hurriicane Jerry Thankfully!!! Other hurricane potential still out there

Many tonight are saying that Jerry will not develop into a hurricane. I agree it most likely will not, there just doesn’t seem to be enough organization to it and the wind sheer is reducing the possibility even more. Good news for us this time. The operative words in the preceding sentence is “this time” Seablooger.com puts it very well.

What is important is that EVERYONE SHOULD be prepared no matter what the situation. Since we have weather on our earth, than we all need to be prepared when the weather is possibly developing into a dangerous condition. Hurricanes are one type of example of a dangerous weather condition. Do YOU have your disaster kit?

COMMENTS WELCOMED!

Are you or have you been in a hurricane disaster? Do you know someone who is recovering or has been affected by a hurricane in the past?
Please share your thoughts and stories here on this blog.
All I ask is that everyone be respectful and sensitive of each other and that identifying information about a person who is not the author be limited to protect their privacy.

Pease, Blessings & Be Safe!

Terrie

Web Site: http://www.trainforahurricane.com/
Web Site http://trainforahurricane.blogspot.com/
Dr. Terrie Modesto, Critical Incident Thanatologist

She is an international expert in dying, death, loss and critical incident individual and community disaster preparation and response, with over 60 courses, books and training manuals to her credit. She has 20+ years experience in assisting those in need. Dr. Modesto is available for consultations, lectures media interviews.
©2007 Train For A Hurricane.com All rights reserved
All writings here are copyrighted by Terrie Modesto and Train For A Hurricane.com. You may not use them without written permission but you may link to the posts or give out a link to the posts.

Dr. Terrie Modesto, PhD, author of Train For A Hurricane, is an international expert in dying, death, loss and critical incident individual and community disaster preparation and response. She has over 60 courses, books and training manuals to her credit around the world, with over 20 years experience in assisting those in need.
Blog www.trainforahurricaneblogspot.com
Web site: http://www.trainforahurricane.com/

Jerryatrics
Sunday, 23 Sep 07, hurricanes

In its zeal to pin a name on any storm in the Atlantic Basin, NHC has designated “subtropical storm Jerry.” But look at the discussion.

THE CYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD SWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. HOWEVER, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS, SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

Again, as with Gabrielle and (S)TD#10, the tone is distinctly apologetic. I want to know what is going on inside NHC. Staff behavior and leadership changes suggest an organization in disarray. The public is ill-served if this forecasting division has been subverted by climate ideologues. It was probably an innocent mistake to begin naming “sub-tropical” storms, but it looks as though this loophole is being exploited by Jerryatric count-padders.

There are three actual tropical systems with potential for development in coming days. One is over Yucatan, and it could cause trouble in the Gulf of Mexico, with a Louisiana landfall looking more likely than Texas at this point. Another could strengthen near the Windwards Islands and enter the Caribbean. The third is far to the east in the deep tropics, but it is large and ominous. A busy time may be imminent at NHC. I wish I had more confidence in the people who are responsible for monitoring and predicting these systems.
Posted at 11:53 AM

No comments: